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Be not afraid, only believe': Madagascar 2002

African Affairs, 2003

, and internet research. Relevant internet articles include Keith Somerville, 'US looks to Africa... more , and internet research. Relevant internet articles include Keith Somerville, 'US looks to Africa for "secure oil"', BBC News Online, 13 September 2002; and 'US moves to abandon S/Arabia for Nigeria's oil', www.petroleumworld.com/story8516.htm BRIEFING: WEST AFRICA AND ITS OIL STEPHEN ELLIS THE US WAR ON TERRORISM AND PREPARATIONS FOR WAR against Iraq have enormously increased the strategic value of West African oil reserves. This comes at a time when there have been massive new discoveries in offshore waters. West Africa's offshore oil fields have been increasingly attractive to oil companies for some years, not least because, according to industry sources, the companies are often able to make higher profits per barrel than on oil from other parts of the world. The quality of Nigerian crude in particular is especially well adapted for use in US refineries. Nigeria is currently the fifth largest exporter of crude oil to the United States behind Canada (1.8 million barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (1.4 million), Mexico and Venezuela. Nigeria is currently exporting between 900,000 and one million barrels per day to the US. Angola is also an important exporter to US markets. Some 15 percent of US oil imports come from Africa. 1 The shock to US strategic thinking caused by the 11 September attacks has coincided with the discovery of major new offshore oil reserves in the Gulf of Guinea region, taken broadly to include the entire sweep from Angola to Senegal. Production in Nigeria and Angola, Africa's largest oil producers, is expected to double or triple in the next 5-10 years. Apart from Congo-Brazzaville, also an established producer, major new producers that are now emerging include Equatorial Guinea and São Tomé and Príncipe. There have also been significant new offshore discoveries in Mauritania, Côte d'Ivoire, Namibia and South Africa. Most of the new reserves are in deep-sea oil fields that can now be exploited by new technology. Spearheading the intensive lobbying in Washington on the subject of West African oil is a US-Israeli lobby, the Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies. It has established a working group called the African Oil Policy Initiative Group (AOPIG). This group cites National Intelligence Council estimates to the effect that African imports will amount to 25 percent of total US imports by 2015; other official sources in the US offer higher estimates. It is expected that some 65-75 percent of US direct investment in Africa in the next decade will be in the energy sector. The

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